The Beginning of the Fall
Before examining the possibility of redemption, it may serve to examine where the fall began, in as simple a set of words as possible.
Imagine a large circle circumscribing our polity, or the entire population. Then imagine a much smaller circle within it to represent the privileged segment of society to which you and I belong. In the larger circle dwells our huge underclass — the mass of our underprivileged population.
There is a constant tension between these two circles in all societies. The unwashed millions want a greater share of national resources to be allocated to them for their health, education, food security, etc. The privileged inhabitants of the smaller circle not only consistently bend their energies to deny this reallocation of resources to the poor but divert these to themselves to further enhance their privileges. This constantly expands inequality between the classes, sharpens class distinctions, and lays the groundwork for what is happening in Pakistan today.
The Rise of Elite Capture
Then the privileged class goes further. Thus far it was “legally” allocating increased resources to itself through budgets, the enactment of new laws, and SROs etc.
At this point, it creates a circle of the elite at the top of the inner circle, which is regulated by a very loose set of laws. This is not unique to Pakistan, and it is the course followed in most states. But in our case, this elite circle created a lawless regime of open theft and capture of national resources and took it to a point where the burden of theft imposed on the economy was beyond its ability to bear.
Living above the law, and beyond the fear of punishment, the fruit of their theft they parked abroad, and borrowed to run the government. They ran up a debt so high that they left Pakistan hostage to the lenders. Our high command, minders of our national security, assisted them in pushing their own country into the claws of the blood-sucking agencies which own our debt. Thus they own our present and our future. We have no way left to break free.
We can now just squirm, scream, beseech, and pray.
The Erosion of Morality and Institutions
Concurrently with all of the above, two further developments took place.
First, with open theft being indulged in by the very elite of our society, theft itself became respectable, so that the rest of us also broke ranks and joined in. This broke down our value system and moral restraint.
Second, EVERY national institution broke down. No national institution can function in the spirit intended, unbound by certain moral moorings which are always taken for granted. For example, every functionary in these institutions is expected to follow the law and prevent illegalities. But with their bosses breaking every law and spending the best part of their energies filling their pockets, lower factotums could hardly have been expected to set moral examples. So they too broke, fell in, and became a part of the herd. This is how rot spreads. This is how all our institutions were broken.
Impact on the Poor and the Rise of Rebellion
With resource allocation which was unfair to begin with, the elite capture and massive theft of national resources at the very top reduced to a pitiful trickle, what was coming down to the poor man. He was thus driven from poverty to wretchedness to starvation to suicide.
Corruption and justice being bound together in an inverse relationship, the mammoth rise in the first saw a steep fall in the dispensation of the other. This affected society as a whole, but the worst hit by this was the poor man, who had nothing but hopes and aspirations as his only wealth.
How can a man so deprived remain vested in the state and look upon it as his guardian?
So, the best and most spirited among the deprived became easy prey to the blandishments of the Mullah, the tribalists, and the sub-nationalists. They became committed to fighting the state, which they perceived as the cause of all their misery. This should explain to you what is happening in Baluchistan, will soon happen in KP, and will then spread to the rest of Pakistan.
Class Struggle: The Tipping Point
These tensions between the “haves” and the “have-nots” seem to be one of the determinants of history. But it is not poverty or deprivation alone which drives a people to revolt. It is the sense of injustice which does.
What marks the tipping point of this sense of injustice cannot be determined from outside the cauldron. Only those being boiled inside know when they’ve had enough. This leads to a revolt. Once this begins, it can lead to a revolution.
It should become clear to all of us that the tussle of the army vs the civil vs the judiciary vs the Civil Service vs Business etc is basically a tactical one for primacy WITHIN the elite itself. But the strategic struggle, always simmering but seldom seen, is the one brewing between the privileged and the “have-not”.
In our society, as in all the others, those of privilege have wanted their continued betterment and enrichment. This could not happen except at the cost of the poor. Having the levers of power at their command, those of privilege almost always win. This can only result in increasing the deprivation of the masses. Deteriorating governance and growing injustice leave a resentful populace in its wake.
This has finally pushed Pakistan to the stage where this struggle is threatening to break out into the open. In this tussle, Imran Khan is seen as representing the cause of the deprived, while Asim Munir is leading the charge on behalf of the thieves. With Asim Munir’s inept policies of using repression as a tool for the resolution of problems, this struggle will only broaden, and the fire will spread.
Is Redemption Possible?
Finally, is redemption for us, possible?
If Asim Munir takes the army back to the barracks, redemption might become a possibility. If he stays his course, he will provide enough oxygen to the insurgencies to blow up into civil war. This may lead first the army, and then the country, to fragment. In that case, those who’ve stolen enough from the country which they will have destroyed, will fly out to the countries where their loot was parked and live happily ever after. The ones left behind will have to grind out existence anew in the statelet which fate chooses for them. In this scenario, the people of Punjab will suffer the worst. This should be easy enough for most to understand. If not, they just need to examine their geography.
A Way Out?
In case a few generals can forget their “generalship” for the moment and find their manhood to compel Asim Munir to have pity on Pakistan and retreat to Dheri Hasanabad, Pakistan may be spared the horrors of a possible civil war towards which it is being pushed. In that case, Imran Khan’s acceptability among a very large number of Pakistanis in every province will be our most valuable asset for survival. Survival will buy time. And time will help release from immediate pressures.
But Imran Khan’s shine too shall wear off unless he delivers. With the rest of the capital stolen, he will have to rely on human capital. He will need to identify men and women with uncommon integrity (and ability), deploy them, and empower them to deliver. Going wrong in this exercise will not be an option for him.
The Role of Eliminating Theft
If there is ever to be a turnaround, and if Imran Khan is to make this happen, he will have to declare theft in high places an offence beyond tolerance. He will have to start by attacking and destroying Qabza Groups to begin the rehabilitation of public security, morality, and of the law. That is where theft is most doggedly entrenched.
He will have to drill into the public mind that if any ONE factor is to be singled out which has pushed us to the brink, that was the insatiable greed of our elite, and the drive to commit ever more theft to feed this greed. This urge to steal destroyed our national ethos, our value system, and every one of our institutions. Theft led us to borrow and to borrow more. This left us hostage to the lenders. Those who sold us out are worth more than our entire national debt.
These are the Elite– the top crust of business, of the politicians, and of every institution of our country, whether in uniform or out. They are the ones who smell better than the rest of us and have prosperity contentedly residing in their bellies, and showing. Every law was bent or broken to help them to commit theft. And ever new laws were crafted to grant immunity to the thieves. All of the foregoing shredded any pretence to the rule of law.
Then they even went so far as to form governments built on the patently fraudulent Form 47! This theft of public mandate shall always enjoy a place of unique pride in the nefarious annals of Election Rigging.
In short, theft is where the slide began. The rise can begin only if theft in high places was first corralled and then eliminated.
If Imran begins by making theft in high places absolutely unacceptable, he will have a place to go to. Without this he will be lost, and so shall we.
And yes, if he begins by undermining the power and reach of public theft, Redemption will become a distinct possibility.