The battle for strategic minerals, particularly cobalt, is intensifying in South and Central Asia—with Afghanistan and Pakistan emerging as major zones of contention. Cobalt (Co), a critical mineral vital for defense, high-tech industries, and renewable energy technologies, is now becoming the epicenter of global rivalry between major powers such as China and the United States. As this new “Great Game” unfolds, recent developments in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province suggest that the country’s military is maneuvering to place itself at the center of this geopolitical resource struggle.
What Are Strategic Minerals—and Why Do They Matter?
Strategic minerals are commodities essential to a country’s economic and national security. Often used interchangeably with “critical minerals,” their definition varies by country. For example, Germany’s Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (DERA) categorizes cobalt, lithium, tantalum, and tungsten as strategic due to their importance in sectors like automotive and consumer electronics. In the U.S., strategic minerals are those critical to national defense but primarily sourced from outside U.S. borders. Their scarcity and geographic concentration make them powerful levers in geopolitical power plays.
Cobalt, specifically, is indispensable for the production of batteries, advanced military equipment, and aerospace and medical technologies. With demand surging and existing reserves tightly held, the global contest over cobalt and other strategic minerals has accelerated. The mineral-rich areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are now squarely in the sights of rival global powers.
China’s Strategic Moves and Canceled Diplomacy
China has long been engaged in mining operations in the region—most notably the Mes Aynak copper project in Afghanistan. Now, cobalt has become a key target. Veteran journalist Shaheen Sehbai recently revealed that high-level Chinese visits to Pakistan, including those of the President and Premier, were abruptly canceled. Reportedly, Beijing demanded that Pakistan repay its multibillion-dollar loans if the Pakistani military continued cozying up to Washington at the expense of China’s strategic and commercial interests, particularly CPEC and mineral access.
Sehbai warned that handing over KP’s minerals to the U.S. would not only enrage China but also destabilize the already fragile region. He cautioned that extracting even a dollar’s worth of gold, uranium, or cobalt would require military force, as local resistance would be fierce. “It will be war,” he emphasized, highlighting the recklessness of those currently shaping Pakistan’s mineral policies.
KP’s Controversial Minerals Act: A Military-Orchestrated Grab
The latest flashpoint in this mineral conflict is the KP Minerals Act, which has now been tabled in the provincial assembly and is likely to pass within days. Critics argue it represents an unconstitutional power grab by the Pakistani military. According to credible bureaucratic sources, the law was drafted by the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC)—a military-led economic body, through Makhdoom Ali Khan—and finalized in just two days under the direct supervision of a Pakistan Army Colonel, who physically oversaw its creation from within the provincial Law Department.
KPK Cabinet approves new mines & minerals law—to be tabled in assembly. Controversially, it lets federal government (via SIFC: Military’s pet project) define ‘strategic minerals,’ undermining provincial authority. Critics call it unconstitutional.
This Act empowers large corporations, especially military-run business entities, to dominate the extraction and commercialization of strategic minerals. Even more controversially, it allows the federal government, via SIFC, to unilaterally define what constitutes a ‘strategic mineral,’ thereby bypassing provincial control. Such centralization severely undermines the constitutional rights of provinces like KP, which are resource-rich but politically marginalized.
Political Fallout: PTI, Isolation of Imran Khan, and Resistance
The push for this law coincides with the continued isolation of Imran Khan, who commands massive public support in KP. Analysts believe one of the key reasons for keeping Khan incommunicado is to prevent him from challenging the military’s resource takeover. Khan’s sister, Aleema Khan, has publicly urged the KP government—formed on PTI’s electoral mandate—to delay the bill until Imran Khan is released, a move seen as strategic and constitutionally sound.
Yet, KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, who many believe is aligned with the military’s agenda, is moving forward with the bill. In doing so, he has reduced the KP Assembly to a rubber stamp, undermining younger PTI leaders like Meena Afridi, Sohail Afridi, and Shahid Khattak. These figures now face a dilemma: align with Ali Amin and risk their political integrity, or challenge the military’s growing influence and risk marginalization.
The Global Context: Pakistan, the U.S., and the Mineral Rush
This domestic drama plays out against the backdrop of increased U.S.-Pakistan dialogue on critical minerals. In a recent phone call, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly discussed expanding cooperation on mineral extraction, trade, and investment. This is a clear signal that the U.S. is seeking alternatives to Chinese mineral dominance—and sees Pakistan’s unstable but resource-rich regions as a potential goldmine.
However, as Sehbai warned, no investor—American or otherwise—can extract value from this region without addressing its political, economic, and security volatility. The current regime’s reckless rush to sell off assets it may not rightfully control could lead to renewed conflict and deeper instability.
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble
The KP Minerals Act and the broader race for cobalt and other strategic minerals reveal a troubling pattern: unelected actors, particularly the military, steering Pakistan’s resource policy to serve their own interests and foreign agendas. In doing so, they not only undermine democratic institutions and provincial rights but also risk turning Pakistan into a pawn in a global resource war.
As the world’s eyes turn toward this new front in the mineral wars, Pakistanis must ask: Who benefits from these deals? And who will bear the cost if this gamble fails?
