The short answer to this question is “Absolutely, it will.” And it will affect Pakistan because this will be an event which may well define this century.

But why will Israel invade Lebanon? The answer to this question is that it is compelled to do so because of the compulsions of the Jewish mind as conditioned by history, and because of the unique connection between the U.S and Israel, in which the Israeli tail insists on wagging the American dog, and though the dog would like to run free, leaving its tail behind, but the tail wont allow it to do so.

The next question is, when will this invasion take place? This may have already taken place as you read this piece. Or it may take place in the next six to eight weeks. Only a miracle can stop it, though a miracle as been absent so long, it is due.

So, to spare readers the effort to get into Jewish history, let me begin with a brief snapshot of this history which has designed the mind which moves Israel.

After the Exodus, the Israelites settled in two adjacent kingdoms. Ten of their tribes settled in the larger kingdom of Israel. And two tribes settled in the kingdom to Judah to its south.
In the 8th century BCE Israel committed a foreign policy blunder. From being an Assyrian tributary, it became allied to Egypt, the other “world” power of the day. This resulted in an Assyrian invasion of Israel, followed by a 20 year war, which ended in Israeli defeat in 722 BCE. The Assyrians took the defeated population captive, took them along, scattered them in various regions, and these ten tribes of Israel were lost to history.

Babylon was the next power to rise in the Fertile Crescent after defeating the Assyrians. The Babylonians invaded the southern Israelite Kingdom of Judah and defeated it in 587 BCE. They burned the “Temple” in Jerusalem to the ground, selected the most skilled among the two remaining Israelite tribes, took them along as captives, and settled them in a separate quarter in Babylon. In 537 BCE the Persians under Cyrus the Great defeated Babylon, and set the Israelites free, who had become ” Rabbinic Jews” by now. A majority preferred to stay on in Babylon, and the rest returned to Jerusalem, where they built the Second Temple.

In AD 68, the Jews revolted against the Romans, their new colonists, who besieged Jerusalem and defeated them in AD 70, burning down the Second Temple, and expelling all the Jews from the city. There followed the Bar Kokhba Revolt in AD 132. In AD 135 the Romans finally crushed this with much brutality, and the Jews left Palestine in their largest numbers yet. But contrary to Jewish claims, there is NO record of any decree of Jewish Expulsion from the land by the Romans. And Romans were given to recording their history.
Most Jews emigrated to the Mediterranean lands, and onwards to Europe. In 312 AD, Constantine, the Roman Emperor converted to Christianity and made this the official religion of the empire. With this began Jewish persecution at the hands of the Christians, which continued unabated till well into the 20th century. Christians held the Jews responsible for the crucifixion of Christ [PBUH]. Persecution was its recompense.

Many of the Jews left behind in Palestine after the Bar Kokhba revolt was crushed converted to Christianity. In 637/38 AD, Muslims conquered Jerusalem, and for the first time since AD 70, allowed the Jews to enter Jerusalem. And from then onwards, many of the jews who had earlier converted to Christianity, began converting to Islam. Most of the “Palestinians” of today are drawn from these converts.

Mid-19th century brought “nationalist” consciousness to many peoples. This coincided with some especially vicious anti-Jewish pogroms in Eastern Europe and Russia. Jews bought into this wave of newly surging nationalisms and determined to have a country of their own where no pogrom will be able to visit them again. And a slow Jewish migration to Palestine began.

This picked up after 1917 when the Balfour Declaration promised to look favourably upon the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine, although at that time the British Mandate in Palestine was some years away.

Jewish migration into Palestine picked up most significantly after the end of WW2, when many survivors of the holocaust became a part of this wave.

The driving spirit behind Jewish migration to Palestine was the quest for “security”. Given the historical memory of the Jews, this was most natural. Most unfortunately this search for security was powered by Zionism, a supremacist religio-ethnic ideology, which saw all other peoples of the world not only as inferior, but also as those with whom life could not be shared on terms of equality. So Project Israel, driven by Zionism, began on the wrong foot. It began with ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. Thus by the time Israel was declared independent, it had already driven out more than half the Palestinians [750000 of them] from their homes, and flattened more than 500 Palestinian villages.

With the indelible memory of this unforgivable atrocity firmly planted in the minds of the Palestinians, the Israelis knew that they will never get the security they were looking for, unless all the Palestinians were driven out of Palestine/Israel. Preparations for the eradication of the Palestinian population from Palestine therefore began with the very creation of Israel. After the 1967 War, Israel expelled another 350000 Palestinians and the first settlements began to be built on Palestinian land. After Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt, they took a formal decision that they would never allow a Palestinian State to be set up. This meant that either Palestinians will have to live in Israel as a subordinate population, or they will be driven out.

One step in the preparation for this eventuality was to prepare the minds of coming Israeli generations for the inhumanity it would take to eradicate so many human beings, in the firm belief that the blood and tears to be drawn from the Palestinians were justified by the call of justice. And so, young Israeli minds were indoctrinated to look upon Palestinians as subhuman. How great a success was achieved by Israel in this project may be gathered by the results of a recent poll in which 91 percent of the Israeli population agreed with the genocide in Gaza. Forty-six percent disagreed. They thought that genocidal Israeli efforts in Gaza were NOT ENOUGH! This poll was followed by a unanimous declaration of the Israeli Cabinet that they firmly reject calls for a two-state solution.

Born of the driving Jewish need for “security” in Israel was their military doctrine of using massive and disproportionate force against “enemies” to create “deterrance”. The aim of this was not only to cow the Palestinians down to the point where they not only did not challenge Israeli authority, but could not even think of doing so.

This “deterrence” capacity was comprehensively shattered by Hamas on Oct 7. To reestablish this lost deterrence all Palestinians have to either be driven out of Gaza, or be killed. But there is a problem. There is Hezbollah in the north, which has engaged Israel in low-intensity warfare ever since Israel launched its attack on Gaza. As a result of this 80000 citizens of northern Israel have fled their homes and moved out of Hezhollah range of fire. They will not return unless Israel disarms Hezbollah and creates a safety zone for its northern citizens. So Israel sent a “proposal” to Hezbollah to move their villages forty miles north to beyond the Litani river so that Israeli citizens of northern Israel can dwell in peace.

Because Hezbollah has not deigned to respond to this proposal, Israel must invade Lebanon and defeat Hezbollah. Without this, “deterrence”, which is central to Israeli “security”, cannot be re-established.

Israel is a US client, but the Israeli PM exercises more influence in US Congress, than does the US President. This situation is unique in world history where a vassal state can circumscribe the sovereignty of the master state, so that the US has so far not been able to even muster the courage to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, much less enforce it.
However, in an act of unprecedented defiance, US has not succumbed to Israeli demands that it join it in an attack on Lebanon. So Israel is trying to provoke Hezbollah to launch an attack on Israel. It hopes that on Israel by Hezbollah will suck in US on the Israeli side, but Hezbollah is refusing to take the bait. It is the hope of Israel that when it has sucked the US into a war against Hezbollah, Iran would come to the aid of Lebanon, and this will lead to a war between Iran and the US and Israel will have killed two [or more] birds with one stone.

So far this has not materialized.

Perhaps Israeli arrogance and hubris, which has made it an article of faith with them, that the subhuman Arabs do not have it in them to fight, will encourage Israel to go it alone against Hezbollah. Most observers believe that the latter are no push-over, and will make Israel pay in blood a price which it has not so far paid since its existence. And this will inevitably lead to a larger regional war.

I do not know if Israel has miniature tactical nukes whose effect can remain confined to southern Lebanon. If it has, I am sure it will use them in a variant of its nuclear doctrine called the “Samson Option”, to save Israeli lives. This doctrine calls for the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort even if this leads to self-destruction.

At all events, things will become very very messy in the Middle East very very soon. In such a situation, if the US has made any large dollar promises to our High Command for conquering its own people, and for abandoning China’s sphere of influence, any fulfillment of such promises will stand deferred for a long, long time.

In the meantime what will stand exposed is the volume of munitions exported by the High Command to Israel, to kill Palestinians. Will this have consequences? You bet, it will. What will erupt is a trigger moment that will unleash energy which can barely be computed.

But most importantly, any large-scale regional war in the Middle East will have the potential to expand into a wider war and throw the world economy off kilter. In such a situation countries teetering on the brink, like Pakistan, will go down the tube. This will push hunger into starvation, and add more misery onto wretchedness. And this will most certainly bring Napoleon’s misrule to an end, and God willing we shall see his head on a platter. The hope for anything less is too much to bear.