Where Does Pakistan Stand, and What Does the U.S. Want?

There is absolutely no doubt left in the minds of the people of Pakistan that the U.S was fully involved in the toppling of Imran Khan’s government in April 2022. There is similarly no doubt in popular thinking that this regime change was a disaster for Pakistan so mammoth, that its consequences will be very difficult for Pakistan to reverse, if ever.
There are two theories of the U.S involvement in this regime change. One, which seems to have greater currency, is that this regime change was cooked up by Gen Bajwa, who sold it to the U.S, who bought into it. And two, that this was initiated by the CIA, in line with its many colour revolutions, meant to snatch allies away from Russia or China.
I believe in the second theory because it would be far too naive to believe in the first.

To understand where Pakistan stands today, it will be helpful to examine the elections of 1970 and their after-effects, against those of 2024.

The elections of 1970 were completely fair, but driven by as dishonest an intent. Unalloyed fair play does not accord with certain gene pools! It was the assessment of the ISI that fair elections would throw up a fractured parliament which would allow the army to remain the primary power of the land. However the Bengalis cheated. They did not give the votes which they should have given to the Jamaat, the Muslim League, or to the Bhashani group etc, and dumped them all in the lap of the Awami League instead. This gave Mujib majority in the Parliament which would have made him Prime Minister.

But this was unacceptable not only to the Generals and the politicians, but also to a vast majority of the people of West Pakistan. After all, how could power be handed over to what was essentially their colony? And this was our colony for the simple fact that we were superior. After all everyone knew that on the average we were about three inches taller than our Bengali opposite number, and a shade lighter in complexion. How else was superiority to be measured than by this primitive measure?

So when the army crackdown of March 25, 1971 took place in Dhaka, it was a popular measure in [West] Pakistan, with full support extended to the army. The crack down was meant to show the Bengalis their right place. And to keep them there, the civil war followed. All this became unpopular only BECAUSE of the surrender, and NOT because any democratic norms had been violated which led us to defeat. This defeat was put on the cards the moment the army decided to stand in the way of popular will.

In Pakistan this issue has taken fire only very recently, and most especially because of the attempt to keep down the most popular party, by the most detested. Again the army has decided to contest the popular will. Again the results will HAVE to be the same.

The only thing common between the 1970 and the 2024 elections was the dishonest intent which motivated them both. In the first case it was the Army’s [misplaced] calculation that fair conduct of elections will bring about results which suited them. In 2024 they had assessed quite accurately that only a veritable auction will have to do for an election, if they were to attain their goals, though, in the end, even this proved to be inadequate, given their heroic incompetence.

The defining moral difference between 1970 and 2024 was that in 1970, being called out for theft would raise a blush if not hackles. But by 2024, grand larceny had become the norm and raised nothing but bank balances.

Whatever else may have been the successes of Imran Khan as Prime Minister, his greatest [and undeniable] achievement was that in three years he made the common man aware of mega theft by the elite, and how this impacted his life. Upto that point the army was still the institution enjoying the greatest public support. But when it chose to switch sides to stand by the thugs, in a mere 20 months it lost almost total support among the people, and as a class the Generals came to be more despised than any other. What it took the British two hundred years to build, has taken substandard Generalship less than two to destroy.

Where Pakistan stands today is where it stood on the eve of the March 25 army crack down in Dacca in 1971. In 1971 the General decided to move forward, bayonets fixed, and returned with their tails between their legs. Any day now they will have to make their final decision. If the Generals mount a credible effort to redeem the totally discredited elections of 2024, and succeed, they would have gone a considerable way towards redeeming themselves and their country. If they choose instead to move ahead, bayonets fixed, ram the results of a fraudulent election down the throats of an unwilling public, there lie ahead civil disturbances, rising insurgencies, and eventually, civil war. Eventually they too will be left with little but their tails between their legs, but may have nowhere to go.

There is too much hunger in the land, too few opportunities, and too many young men chasing them. Many of these will become petty thieves. The more venturesome will become more accomplished criminals. And many of the most energetic ones will move to fill the empty ranks of burgeoning insurgencies, and will take on the army. Eventually the defeat of the army will be stepped up when an army bullet brings down the first army General. That will be the time that they will begin running for the exits. But Pakistan, being an artificial construct in history, will not be able to bear the strain of civil war, and will come apart at the seams.

There is no other outcome possible, simply because the laws of history are the same as those of God, and you cannot violate these and then hope to be let off on account of good behavior.

So if the U.S wants Pakistan to go this way, it should sit back and not lift a finger, because its puppets are doing a fine job of it. But if it feels that damage unleashed from the unraveling of Pakistan will not remain confined to its borders and may have catastrophic effects on some of U.S interests, it needs to reign in its attack dogs not just immediately, but yesterday.

Never perhaps did any organization pack its senior ranks with such consummate incompetents and so much greed, as our army, the lost pride and hope of our yesterdays.

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