Pakistan at a Crossroads: The Rising Tide of Terrorism and Instability

Excessive focus on suppressing political opposition, including PTI and Imran Khan, has left the military and ISI blind to emerging security threats.

The year 2024 will be remembered as one of the bloodiest and most terrifying years for Pakistan since 2009. Nearly 1,500 people have lost their lives, with over 4,000 injured, including members of the Pakistan Army, law enforcement agencies (LEAs), and civilians. To analyze the escalating war against the state and the evolving dynamics of terrorism, the 786 Intelligence Battalion, a group of dissidents within the Pakistani military working with me conducted an in-depth review of various terror groups operating in Pakistan and their historical and structural evolution.

The unchecked resurgence of the TTP, the enduring Baloch insurgency, and the military’s misaligned priorities have created a perfect storm of instability.

The Historical Roots of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) traces its origins to the aftermath of the 2007 Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) military operation, conducted by the Special Services Group (SSG) commandos of the Pakistan Army. The operation, marked by bloodshed, saw the massacre of civilians, including women and children, with their bodies reportedly transported in vehicles of the 7 Signal Battalion under 10 Corps.

The situation is attributed to the priorities of the military high command under the current Chief, Asim Munir, who is reportedly more focused on political manipulation to maintain his grip on power in Pakistan and secure a tenure extension, rather than fulfilling his primary responsibilities.

Before its formal establishment in December 2007, the TTP emerged as a coalition of independent Mujahid factions operating in various regions:

  • Swat: A Mujahid force led localized resistance.

  • Bajaur: A group under Maulvi Faqir.

  • South Waziristan: Commanded by Maulvi Nazir.

  • North Waziristan: Haji Gul Bahadar led operations.

The Lal Masjid tragedy catalyzed the unification of these factions into the TTP, with additional splinter groups like Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and Hizb-ul-Ahrar emerging over time.

TTP’s Resurgence in 2025

Under the leadership of Maulvi Abu Mansoor, reportedly based in Kabul and aligned with Afghanistan’s Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, the TTP has undergone significant restructuring in 2025. The group has formed a 17-18 member central Shura, which serves as its apex decision-making body.

The Shura oversees two key commissions:

  • North Commission
  • South Commission

Each commission includes a Military Commission, tasked with strategizing and directing military operations. The TTP has embraced advanced technology, including digital maps, AI systems, and modern weaponry, to enhance its operational capabilities.

An Intelligence Commission, led by a Director General (DG), further strengthens the TTP’s strategic framework, overseeing a network of subgroups and intelligence operations.

The Baloch Insurgency and Its Growing Nexus

In Balochistan, separatist groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), Balochistan Republican Army (BRA), and Lashkar-e-Balochistan continue their armed resistance against the state. These groups maintain a strong nexus with the TTP, leveraging safe havens in Afghanistan having a history of collaboration over the past decades.

Military Dominance: Fueling Political Discontent in Balochistan and Pashtun Regions

The Baloch and Pashtun insurgencies stem primarily from political discontent, fueled by the short-sighted policies of Pakistan’s military junta. Rather than addressing the issue through dialogue and political solutions, the military has consistently relied on force to tackle this deeply rooted political problem. This approach is exacerbated by the lack of robust democratic institutions, which have been stifled under the military’s control over national resources and political power.

Key Observations

  1. Inadequate Preparedness:
    The Pakistan Army, under General Asim Munir, is ill-equipped to counter the sophisticated nexus between the TTP and Baloch insurgent groups, confirms sources in the Pakistani military. The situation is attributed to the priorities of the military high command under the current Chief, Asim Munir, who is reportedly more focused on political manipulation to maintain his grip on power in Pakistan and secure a tenure extension, rather than fulfilling his primary responsibilities.

  2. Misallocation of Resources:
    Excessive focus on suppressing political opposition, including PTI and Imran Khan, has left the military and ISI blind to emerging security threats.

  3. Economic Strain:
    Pakistan’s worsening economic crisis has eroded the Army’s operational capacity, further weakening its ability to counter organized threats. The growing dissent within the military is also attributed to this cause, alongside mounting casualties because of resource constraints due to policy priorities.

  4. International Isolation:
    Pakistan’s global isolation has deepened, particularly after the Islamabad Massacre on November 26, 2024, where a military operation against peaceful protestors stained the state’s reputation.

  5. Internal Discontent:
    The mass dismissals and forced retirements of Pashtun and Baloch officers have fueled resentment, indirectly aiding recruitment for the TTP and Baloch insurgent groups.

Conclusion

Pakistan stands at a critical juncture, grappling with an escalating security crisis and systemic failures. The unchecked resurgence of the TTP, the enduring Baloch insurgency, and the military’s misaligned priorities have created a perfect storm of instability.

Without addressing these underlying issues—ranging from internal discontent to the mismanagement of resources—Pakistan risks descending into further chaos and bloodshed. The state must urgently recalibrate its focus to counter both internal and external threats, restore public trust, and safeguard its future.

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