Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Pakistan and formally announce the deployment of Chinese “boots on the ground” in the country. This move marks a significant shift in China’s strategic presence in Pakistan, as Beijing expands its operations and establishes a base in Karachi to oversee its activities. For this purpose, an exclusive Chinese facility will be constructed in Defence Housing Authority (DHA) Phase 9, also known as DHA City Karachi. The base will be fully equipped with China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), a command and control center, a 1,000-bed hospital, and modern communication infrastructure.
Security and Military Collaboration
The Chinese MSS is expected to hire retired Pakistan Army officers as a private security force to protect its operations in Pakistan. The broader Chinese strategy revolves around controlling the deep-sea port of Gwadar and securing returns on its investments in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), specifically the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The plan includes upgrading Gwadar Airport into a regional air hub and positioning Gwadar as an alternative to Dubai Port for commercial shipping refueling, offering a 15% discount to shipping carriers. Additionally, the plan envisions an oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia to China via Pakistan.
It is important to note that the Pakistani nation is not expected to be compensated for these projects, as China has already incurred significant financial losses in Pakistan and continues to sustain the struggling Pakistani economy.
The Role of the Pakistani Military Establishment
Sources within the Pakistani intelligence community claim that despite the seemingly appeasing attitude of the Pakistani military establishment towards China, the real reason for China’s downgrade in diplomatic relations with Pakistan in 2024 is the military leadership, under General Asim Munir, allegedly working against Chinese interests and the CPEC under the pretext of “strategic compulsions.” In response, the Chinese intelligence agency has developed an understanding with Baloch insurgents, leading to a cessation of attacks on Chinese nationals in Baluchistan. However, insurgent activities continue in other parts of Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan.
Latest threat issued by the militant organization TTP using this picture taken at the Faisal Mosque in the capital city of Islamabad. The diplomatic community at Islamabad are at high alert after this threat.
This shift in Chinese strategy has also influenced Saudi Arabia and the UAE to temporarily refrain from investing in Pakistan. During a recent visit to Beijing by the Pakistani Army Chief and the current government, Chinese authorities expressed concerns over Pakistan’s ability to secure Chinese interests and CPEC. They indicated that if the Pakistan Army cannot ensure security, China would take measures to do so themselves.
Asim Munir’s Role and Strategic Missteps
A pressing question arises: what is Asim Munir doing? China’s top concerns are security and political stability—both areas where Asim Munir has struggled. His focus appears to be on domestic political manipulation rather than ensuring the security of key Chinese projects. China has even suggested deploying its own troops if Asim Munir cannot provide adequate security for CPEC. Additionally, concerns have been raised over DGI Nadeem Anjum’s apparent lack of interest in Chinese security.
Asim Munir and his allies find themselves in a difficult position, with both Washington and Beijing unhappy with the military junta’s handling of superpower interests in Pakistan. Historically, Pakistani generals have engaged in double-crossing and strategic maneuvering between global powers. However, such tactics require control over domestic affairs—something the generals have struggled to maintain since the regime change operation in April 2022. Asim Munir’s double dealings have now been fully exposed, posing a significant risk to Pakistan’s national security.
China’s Growing Influence in Cyber and Military Spheres
China is working to establish a monopoly over Pakistan’s communications infrastructure with the backing of the Pakistani military. This would grant Beijing unprecedented access to monitor and control the cyber sphere, censor social media, and silence dissent. Meanwhile, certain elements within the Pakistani military’s intelligence agency, the ISI, have reportedly been supporting proxy militant groups in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Baluchistan to counter Chinese influence. This strategy is allegedly being used to gain favor with the West in exchange for financial and strategic benefits.
With Chinese boots on the ground in Pakistan, this dynamic could escalate further. Pakistani generals may believe they are trapping China into their geopolitical games, but the MSS has developed strong ties with anti-establishment militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan. This development suggests that the Pakistani military elite could be in for a major surprise, but the true victims of this power struggle will be the ordinary people of Pakistan, who are striving for democracy.
The Future of Superpower Rivalries in Pakistan
The MSS is set to expand its operations across Pakistan to secure China’s Belt and Road investments, which remain under constant threat due to alleged involvement by the Pakistani ISI. In response, Pakistani generals are likely to exploit this situation to entice the United States into engaging in a superpower rivalry on Pakistani soil. This follows their established pattern of a rent-seeking attitude, leveraging geopolitical conflicts for financial gain.
As China deepens its grip on Pakistan’s strategic and economic sectors, the implications for national sovereignty and regional stability remain uncertain. While the Pakistani military elite may view these developments as opportunities for economic and strategic gain, the long-term consequences could be far more detrimental to the country’s future.
