The Stakes of Inaction
Pakistan’s political crisis has become America’s problem. Munir’s regime, fortified by draconian laws like the amended Army Act (2023) and military trials for civilians, has turned the nuclear-armed state into a powder keg. Khan’s continued imprisonment on dubious charges — despite his party’s sweeping 2024 electoral mandate — fuels anti-American sentiment, as many Pakistanis perceive U.S. silence as tacit endorsement of military rule. This perception undermines Washington’s counterterrorism partnership with Islamabad, particularly against ISIS-Khorasan, where cooperation has yielded results.
Khan’s unique diplomatic capital, honed during the 2019 Doha peace talks, remains unmatched. His ability to bridge divides between adversarial actors — from the Taliban to Trump himself — could prove vital in de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Yet Munir’s vendetta against Khan risks squandering this asset, even as Pakistan’s economy teeters under $34 billion in remittance-dependent debt.
The Munir Problem
General Munir’s consolidation of power mirrors the worst excesses of Pakistan’s authoritarian past:
- Strategic Purges: Over 200 pro-Khan military officers removed since 2023
- Economic Capture: Military-controlled Special Investment Facilitation Council dictating fiscal policy
- Judicial Subversion: Supreme Court endorsing military trials of civilians
Munir’s recent diplomatic overtures — including missile strikes in Iran and cozying up to Saudi Arabia — reveal a regime more invested in consolidating domestic control than addressing regional crises. His refusal to accept U.S. mediation on Kashmir, despite Trump’s renewed interest, further demonstrates intransigence.
A Sanctions Playbook That Works
The Biden administration’s kid-glove approach to Munir has failed. Trump’s team should deploy targeted measures that hit where it hurts:
A) Visa bans : Freeze visas for military brass families
B) Textile Tariffs : Threaten 29% duty on $17B export sector
C) Entity List Expansions: Add military-linked firms to trade blacklist
These tools align with Trump’s transactional playbook. The threat alone could force Munir’s hand, given Pakistan’s desperate need for IMF support and export revenue.
The Khan Dividend
Releasing Khan isn’t charity — it’s realpolitik. His freedom would:
- Restore Mediation Credibility: As the only Pakistani leader trusted by both Trump and regional actors, Khan could revive backchannel U.S.-Iran talks through Oman.
- Neutralize Anti-American Sentiment: Khan’s PTI party, still commanding 55% support, could temper rising anti-Western rhetoric fueled by military propaganda.
- Stabilize the Economy: Khan’s popularity among overseas Pakistanis, who sent record $4B remittances in March 2025, makes him critical to debt crisis management.
The Trump Imperative
History shows military dictatorships crumble when Washington turns the screws. General Zia ul-Haq folded under Reagan’s pressure in the 1980s; Musharraf buckled post-9/11. Munir’s weakness is palpable — his desperate courtship of Centcom via counterterrorism cooperation reveals fear of isolation.
President Trump must choose: prop up a brittle dictator, or unleash Pakistan’s democratic force multiplier. The path to Tehran’s de-escalation runs through Rawalpindi Prison.