In August 2025, former U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad issued a sharp warning: Pakistan should not host Afghan opposition elements, calling it “provocative and unwise.” His statement came just as Pakistan’s civilian government was celebrating a diplomatic achievement — hosting a trilateral meeting with China and Afghanistan in Kabul.

Reports suggest the “leak” of opposition contacts may even have come from within Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, highlighting the tug-of-war between the civilian government seeking normalized ties and the military establishment determined to preserve its leverage. Khalilzad’s criticism exposed what Afghans and observers have long suspected: every civilian step toward peace is undercut by the Pakistani military and ISI.

Civilian Engagement vs. Military Sabotage

Since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021, Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan has been shaped by a dual track:

Civilian Governments: Push for diplomacy, trade, trilateral talks, and ambassador appointments.

Military/ISI: Undermine those efforts through covert opposition contacts, airstrikes, refugee pressure tactics, and border clashes.

This is not new. Pakistan’s security establishment has always preferred control over coexistence. Just as it has historically used militant proxies and sabotage in India to block peace efforts, the same playbook is now applied to Afghanistan.

Timeline of Key Events (Aug 2021 – Aug 2025)

15 Aug 2021 — Taliban seize Kabul. Within weeks, ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed appears in Kabul’s Serena Hotel, symbolizing direct military engagement, while diplomats tried to stabilize ties. (AP, Dawn)

16–17 Apr 2022 — Pakistani airstrikes hit Khost and Kunar, killing civilians including women and children. These UN-documented strikes deepened Afghan mistrust. (Al Jazeera, UN Docs)

Late 2023 / Early 2024 — Islamabad announces deportation of ~1.7 million undocumented Afghans, weaponizing refugees as a pressure tactic. (VOA, Crisis Group)

18 Mar 2024 — New Pakistani airstrikes in Khost and Paktika kill civilians, triggering Afghan retaliation. (RFE/RL)

28 Apr 2024 — Reports surface of secret Pakistani-Russian intelligence meetings with anti-Taliban opposition in Turkey. (Local Afghan reporting)

Dec 2024 — Another round of cross-border airstrikes kills Afghan civilians, followed by Taliban retaliation. (Al Jazeera, VOA)

31 Jan 2025 — Senior ISI delegation meets anti-Taliban groups in Istanbul, while diplomats discuss normalization. (Afghanistan International)

21 Feb – Mar 2025 — Closure of Torkham border after clashes halts trade and humanitarian flows. (Reuters)

30 May 2025 — Pakistan appoints an ambassador to Kabul, signaling diplomatic progress, even as ISI keeps meeting opposition abroad. (Reuters)

20 Aug 2025 — Civilian diplomacy: Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan hold a high-profile trilateral in Kabul to extend CPEC.
Military sabotage: Reports emerge of Afghan opposition being hosted in Islamabad — the exact “provocative” step Khalilzad condemned. (AP News, X/Twitter)

Aug 2025 (humanitarian impact) — Afghan refugees in Islamabad evicted from homes, forced to live in parks amid deportation drives. (Reuters)

The Establishment’s Playbook

Every civilian initiative is followed by military disruption:

Diplomatic envoys → followed by bombings.

Trade talks → followed by border closures.

Refugee negotiations → turned into mass deportations.

Ambassador appointments → overshadowed by ISI opposition meetings.

Trilateral diplomacy → sabotaged by hosting resistance figures.

The message is clear: Pakistan’s military establishment is unwilling to allow normalized, stable ties with Afghanistan if it weakens their leverage.

Parallels with India

This pattern is not unique to Afghanistan. Whenever civilian governments in Pakistan attempted dialogue with India, the military scuttled progress:

1999 Lahore Declaration → followed by Kargil conflict orchestrated by the Army.

2008 peace overtures → undermined by the Mumbai attacks.

2015 Modi’s Lahore visit → followed by Pathankot attack.

In both India and Afghanistan, the same formula applies: when civilians seek peace, the establishment manufactures conflict to keep control, extract rents, and remain indispensable.

Human Cost

This endless cycle comes at a devastating cost:

Afghan civilians killed in Pakistani airstrikes.

Millions displaced by forced deportations.

Border closures choking trade and humanitarian access.

Refugees living in parks and camps in Pakistan.

Behind every “security tactic” lies a trail of human suffering that both states are forced to bear.

Conclusion: A Deliberate Strategy

Since 2021, Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy has not been about peace — it has been about power projection and leverage. The ISI and military are not simply reacting to events; they are deliberately sabotaging civilian diplomacy to keep Afghanistan weak, unstable, and dependent.

As Khalilzad’s warning underscores, Pakistan’s military establishment is repeating its old playbook: block peace, fuel instability, and trade “strategic importance” abroad for dollars — all while ordinary Afghans and Pakistanis pay the price.