Trump’s Trade Trap: How Pakistan’s Desperate Generals Are Being Played for America’s Strategic Gains

August 3, 2025

Trump’s Trade Trap: How Pakistan’s Desperate Generals Are Being Played for America’s Strategic Gains

Adil Raja

In a dramatic twist of global energy politics, Pakistan’s military-led regime, under Army Chief General Asim Munir, is once again walking a geopolitical tightrope – this time dangling its rare earth minerals and oil sector before both the United States and China. But while the Pakistani generals dream of leveraging superpower rivalry to their advantage, it is increasingly clear that former U.S. President Donald Trump is the one playing them — using their desperation for economic rescue to extract strategic concessions and pivot Pakistan away from Beijing.
The latest indicator of this shift is Pakistan’s first-ever purchase of U.S. crude oil.

A Landmark Oil Deal—or Strategic Surrender?

On August 1, Cnergyico, Pakistan’s largest oil refiner, confirmed it will import 1 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate crude from Vitol in October 2025. This shipment —loaded from Houston — is a historic first, marking Pakistan’s entry into the U.S. oil market. What lies beneath the surface, however, is a story of economic coercion, strategic manipulation, and a crumbling power fantasy.

This deal didn’t emerge from routine commercial interests. It followed months of pressure from the Trump camp, particularly after the former president threatened Pakistan with a 29% tariff in April 2025. The warning triggered panic within Pakistan’s military-controlled ministries. The result: hasty backdoor diplomacy, a trade deal with Washington, and Trump receiving a bizarre Nobel Peace Prize nomination from Islamabad — a political gesture soaked in flattery and desperation.

The tariff was later reduced to 19%, but the message was clear: Trump understands Pakistan’s economic fragility and is using it to full effect.

Pakistan’s “Resource Card” Gamble

At the heart of this new U.S.-Pakistan oil dynamic lies General Asim Munir’s broader strategy: to sell Pakistan’s natural resources — particularly critical minerals and rare earths — as leverage to global powers. The pitch is grand: Pakistan holds untapped reserves of lithium, copper, rare earth elements, and possibly oil and gas.

But the reality, as exposed by decades of failed exploration, is far less convincing.

Take the Kekra-1 offshore well, for instance — a highly publicized drilling venture involving ExxonMobil, PPL, OGDC, POL, and Statoil. It was a geological gamble with poor seismic data and weak prep work. The result? A dry hole. The well was abandoned.

More broadly, no major oil reserves have been discovered on the Indian plate, which includes Pakistan. Most of the region’s existing fields are small, primarily natural gas, and commercially underwhelming. Experts familiar with seismic work across all four Pakistani provinces confirm the same: Pakistan’s “energy miracle” remains more myth than matter.

Yet, in a pattern that has become all too familiar under Munir’s rule, wild claims of “trillions of dollars” in resource wealth are floated regularly — without substantiation, strategy, or follow-through.

SIFC, Saudi Promises, and the Mirage of Prosperity

General Munir has used platforms like the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to reinforce his “economic saviour” image. But results are scant. A $100 billion promise from Saudi Arabia? Nowhere to be seen. Desert farming? Still theoretical. Crypto regulation? Still confused. Lithium dreams? Unproven. This PR cycle is designed to create the illusion of progress while shielding the military’s absolute grip on Pakistan’s economy.

Even now, MOL and Petronas remain among the few foreign energy firms clinging to Pakistan’s oil and gas sector — while giants like Exxon, Chevron, and BP have long exited, citing operational and commercial risks.

Why Trump’s Winning—And Pakistan Isn’t

From the outside, it may appear that Pakistan is hedging its bets — playing the U.S. and China off each other to secure economic gains. But the actual leverage lies in Trump’s hands.

By dangling tariff relief, peace gestures, and minor trade concessions, Trump is pulling Pakistan — America’s former “major non-NATO ally” — out of Beijing’s orbit without offering real economic transformation in return.

In fact, this new oil deal could serve as a gateway to deeper U.S. access to Pakistan’s critical minerals — resources the U.S. urgently needs amid rising tensions with China and growing global competition for control of battery and chip supply chains.

While China has been exploring and securing mineral contracts in Gilgit-Baltistan and Baluchistan for decades, Washington now sees an opening — and Trump sees a weak general begging for legitimacy.

The Cost of the Double Game

Pakistan’s generals have long relied on a dangerous tradition: playing both sides in international rivalries to maintain domestic dominance. They did it during the Cold War, again during the War on Terror, and now they seek to repeat the trick amid U.S.-China tensions. But this time, the strategy is failing.

Rather than becoming a regional pivot, Pakistan is being reduced to a resource outpost, managed by military rulers who lack both economic expertise and long-term vision. The country remains trapped in a cycle of dependency, propaganda, and authoritarian control, trading sovereignty for survival.

Conclusion: Trump Plays, Munir Pays

The true irony? While General Asim Munir pitches himself as the man who can unlock Pakistan’s hidden wealth and economic salvation, he’s being outmanoeuvred by a former U.S. president who sees through the bluff.

Trump isn’t investing in Pakistan’s future. He’s exploiting its weakness. The Nobel nominations and oil imports aren’t signs of national success — they’re evidence of strategic manipulation, executed with clinical precision.

And once again, Pakistan’s rulers are confusing short-term flattery with long-term gain.

Until Pakistan reclaims civilian control, embraces transparency, and stops outsourcing foreign policy to its military elite, it will continue to be used—not empowered—by global powers who understand the game far better than the generals in Rawalpindi ever will.

Adil Raja is a freelance investigative journalist and a dissident based in London, United Kingdom. He is a member of the National Union of Journalists of the UK and the International Human Rights Foundation. Read more about Adil Raja.