Over the past two years (2023–2025), China has steadily expanded its security footprint in Pakistan, effectively replacing the long-standing influence of the CIA with its own intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS). This shift marks a profound geopolitical realignment in South Asia, driven by China’s need to safeguard its strategic investments and respond to evolving regional dynamics.
The Rise of MSS in Pakistan
China’s Ministry of State Security, its principal civilian intelligence agency, has taken a more active and visible role in Pakistan, particularly around projects tied to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A combination of rising militant threats, economic interdependence, and waning U.S. influence has created an opening that the MSS is exploiting with calculated precision.
Security Collaboration and Strategic Penetration
In the wake of escalating attacks on Chinese nationals and assets in Pakistan—notably the October 2024 Karachi airport bombing that killed two Chinese engineers—Beijing has demanded tighter cooperation with Islamabad. Joint counterterrorism statements in 2024 and 2025 specifically reference the MSS as a partner, indicating a formalization of China’s intelligence presence in the country.
The MSS has pushed for enhanced early warning systems and coordinated anti-terrorism intelligence sharing, particularly targeting insurgent groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). At the same time reports suggests MSS contacts with elements within BLA and TTP. This coordination signifies not just security cooperation, but a growing intelligence footprint within Pakistan’s internal security apparatus.
Private Security Contractors and MSS Oversight
In 2025, reports surfaced that China has deployed personnel from private security contractors (PSCs) to protect Chinese nationals working on CPEC-related projects. CIA has traditionally deployed PSCs in Pakistan before this. Raymond Davis being a notorious example, who was involved in the murder of ISI informants in Lahore. Historically, these PSCs employed Pakistani nationals, but the recent deployment hints at a deeper MSS role. MSS is reportedly operating its bases in Islamabad and Karachi. A new regional MSS base is reportedly being built in Karachi, with a 1,000 bed hospital. While permanent deployment of Chinese nationals in security roles remains a point of contention, it is widely believed that the MSS coordinates or oversees many of these PSC operations, ensuring alignment with Beijing’s strategic interests.
China had earlier attempted to establish a Chinese-run PSC within Pakistan in 2022, but the request was blocked by Imran Khan’s government’s Ministry of Interior due to concerns over sovereignty and legality. Despite the rejection, China’s persistence reflects its desire to control the security environment around its assets, independent of Pakistan’s internal politics.
Intelligence Infrastructure and Unverified Claims
Social media posts from 2022 to 2025 suggest the MSS may have established a dedicated directorate for Pakistan and even upgraded an intelligence outpost, possibly led by a senior officer equivalent to a brigadier. While these claims remain unverified and lack confirmation from primary sources, they echo the pattern of China’s global intelligence expansion and point to an increasingly assertive posture in Pakistan.
The Waning Footprint of the CIA
As the MSS footprint expands, the CIA’s historical influence in Pakistan has receded. From coordinating drone strikes during the War on Terror to extensive human intelligence networks, the CIA once wielded substantial clout in Islamabad. However, deteriorating U.S.-Pakistan ties, American disengagement from Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s pivot toward China have all contributed to a rollback of U.S. intelligence dominance in the region.
Unlike the CIA’s often high-profile operations, the MSS operates with a low-visibility model, embedding within host-country institutions and leveraging economic dependencies to maintain influence. This shift from overt influence to embedded, long-term strategic penetration reflects China’s different philosophy of power projection.
Strategic Implications for the Region
The rise of the MSS in Pakistan signals a major geopolitical recalibration. China now directly influences the security environment of a nuclear-armed nation that sits at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia. With over $60 billion invested in CPEC and broader ambitions tied to Gwadar Port and the Indian Ocean, China’s motivation is clear: ensure strategic continuity and prevent disruptions at all costs.
Meanwhile, India and the United States view this development with increasing alarm. There are growing concerns in New Delhi and Washington that Pakistan is becoming a satellite security state of Beijing, with implications for regional military balance, intelligence operations, and strategic autonomy.
China’s quiet replacement of the CIA with the MSS is emblematic of a broader global shift—from American primacy to multipolar contestation, where influence is brokered not through military bases and overt operations, but through embedded economic and security structures.
Conclusion
The MSS’s growing presence in Pakistan is not merely about safeguarding Chinese workers or investments. It is part of a larger play to embed Chinese power into the core of Pakistan’s security and intelligence architecture. While the MSS remains less visible than the CIA once was, its influence may prove deeper and more enduring. This transformation underscores how China’s strategic patience and economic leverage are quietly rewriting the rules of intelligence dominance in South Asia.
