The political landscape of Pakistan’s north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) shifted again this week with the replacement of Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur by Sohail Afridi, a lawmaker from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Supporters of the imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan hailed the change as a new beginning, hoping that Afridi’s tribal roots and fiery rhetoric would revive momentum for the party.
Yet analysts and party insiders caution that the celebration may be premature. Afridi inherits the same structural limitations that constrained his predecessor: a provincial administration whose policing, judicial and administrative systems operate under the shadow of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment.
A fragile mandate
Afridi’s rise owes much to political arithmetic. Backed by roughly 90 PTI members of the provincial assembly, he emerged as a consensus figure acceptable to various party factions after weeks of internal wrangling. In his maiden speech to the assembly he pledged unwavering loyalty to Khan, saying he was ready to sacrifice his life for his imprisoned leader — words that won applause from supporters but raised eyebrows among pragmatists who view his task as political, not personal.
Political observers note that Afridi’s real challenge will be to translate symbolic loyalty into practical strategy. “He has a limited power base,” said one Islamabad-based analyst. “His influence depends entirely on the party’s popularity and on how far the security establishment allows him to operate.”
Civil–military balance
For decades, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s governance structure has been intertwined with the military’s counter-terrorism and border-security apparatus. Even after the integration of the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into the province, local policing and intelligence coordination remain heavily supervised by the army. That leaves little room for unilateral political manoeuvre.
A retired officer who requested anonymity described the situation as “governance within boundaries set by Rawalpindi.” Any chief minister, he said, must navigate those limits carefully if he hopes to survive.
Strategic priorities
Sources within PTI say Afridi has been advised to focus on administrative competence and to keep attention on the legal and political campaign for Khan’s release rather than on confrontation with the centre. Some supporters advocate bringing experienced professionals — including retired civil servants and academics — into advisory roles to craft realistic plans for economic recovery and institutional reform.
“The next few months will show whether Afridi can function as a manager rather than a martyr,” one party organiser commented.
The broader picture
The episode reflects a recurring pattern in Pakistani politics: high expectations surrounding new provincial leaders followed by rapid disillusionment once they encounter entrenched power structures. Until the civil–military equation changes, provincial chief ministers — especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — are likely to remain administrators of limited autonomy.
For now, Afridi enjoys a brief honeymoon. His supporters see him as a bridge between the party’s urban youth base and its tribal constituencies. But as the euphoria fades, he will be judged on whether he can deliver governance within the realities of Pakistan’s complex power hierarchy — not on the slogans that carried him to office.
Adil Raja is a retired major of the Pakistan Army, freelance investigative journalist, and dissident based in London, United Kingdom. He is the host of “Soldier Speaks Reloaded,” an independent commentary platform focused on South Asian politics and security affairs. Adil is also a member of the National Union of Journalists (UK) and the International Human Rights Foundation. Read more about Adil Raja.. Read more about Adil Raja.
